The World Order set up by the US and its allies after World War 2 is under stress. For the first time in history the dominant power did not set up an imperial system based on the law of the jungle. Instead the new order was based on the idea that for the US to be at peace and prosperous the whole world also needed to flourish. International institutions were created with rules that allowed all countries to thrive economically. US Naval power guaranteed freedom of the seas which has allowed anyone to trade from almost anywhere.
The current World Order has many deficiencies including a gap between the aspirations and execution. Academics and civil society can point to many areas where practice needs to be closer to ideals. However, changes in the World Order are more likely to come from actions by emerging powers such as China, India and Russia or an abdication by the US.
The changes that these three emerging powers are likely to make will not close the gap between aspirations and execution. Instead, they will bring us back to the law of the jungle where strong powers reserve the right to exert their authority within their perceived sphere of influence. Within America, the America First movement of Donald Trump seeks a retreat of the US into isolationism and allowing emerging powers to establish spheres of influence.
A return to the law of the jungle will not benefit small countries like Mauritius. With all its imperfections the current World Order has allowed many countries including Mauritius to prosper through open international trade, investment and labour flows.
The War in Ukraine has galvanized the West to defend the existing World Order. Even if Russia fails in Ukraine, the current World Order may end if Donald Trump is re-elected. However, the order will certainly fall apart if Russia prevails in Ukraine. Small countries like Mauritius need to hope for a Ukrainian victory and the rolling back of the America First isolationism in the US. Otherwise we will fare far less well in a return to the law of the jungle.
